Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.737145 0.859629 0.995798 1.158367 1.347161 1.559508 1.816507
2025-01-12 0.513748 0.669166 0.861417 1.116572 1.446312 1.858157 2.411960
2025-01-19 0.395714 0.557476 0.773288 1.081988 1.512184 2.090644 2.928325
2025-01-26 0.334571 0.502382 0.740439 1.102303 1.638373 2.403532 3.579983
2025-02-02 0.303639 0.481726 0.748089 1.174745 1.840918 2.841796 4.461878
2025-02-09 0.270858 0.451466 0.734718 1.210218 1.988416 3.212411 5.286783
2025-02-16 0.240494 0.419386 0.712384 1.225797 2.102923 3.541392 6.083521
2025-02-23 0.212749 0.386886 0.683796 1.225154 2.187535 3.827992 6.841518
2025-03-02 0.187935 0.355477 0.652115 1.213506 2.249360 4.080057 7.567058
2025-03-09 0.168769 0.331289 0.629442 1.213849 2.330628 4.372586 8.396635
2025-03-16 0.146781 0.298548 0.586599 1.170478 2.324247 4.503435 8.939737
2025-03-23 0.141571 0.297674 0.603518 1.243207 2.547393 5.086382 10.414115
2025-03-30 0.124322 0.270526 0.566514 1.205932 2.552242 5.256217 11.109858
2025-04-06 0.108905 0.245095 0.529818 1.164727 2.544428 5.401372 11.777926
2025-04-13 0.096071 0.223342 0.497786 1.128752 2.542170 5.556091 12.483311
2025-04-20 0.089497 0.214588 0.492400 1.149939 2.666039 5.990314 13.846775
2025-04-27 0.087581 0.216273 0.510221 1.225478 2.920628 6.737393 16.000059
2025-05-04 0.083001 0.210963 0.511387 1.262467 3.091005 7.316177 17.838887
2025-05-11 0.077498 0.202601 0.504290 1.278712 3.214102 7.800448 19.514180
2025-05-18 0.071553 0.192264 0.491061 1.278041 3.295595 8.195440 21.020373
2025-05-25 0.065586 0.181025 0.474163 1.265895 3.346814 8.523119 22.399721
2025-06-01 0.060842 0.172374 0.462706 1.266253 3.429923 8.938716 24.053492
2025-06-08 0.054441 0.158290 0.435363 1.221029 3.387902 9.033498 24.884072